Interview of the Head of the Iranian Students Polling Agency (ISPA)
Head of the Iranian Students Polling Agency (ISPA):
Protests are caused by accumulated anger and [the authorities] taking no heed of [people's] demands
The Bahar News Political Group: The head of the Iranian Students Polling Agency (ISPA) said that although a significant number of the people are outraged by the present conditions, nonetheless half of the population believe that protests are of no benefit. Different reasons are put forward, including the attitude of the authorities in paying no heed to the protests. In my opinion, this very same point is a clear reason why the protesters return more aggressive every time. After the announcement of the death of “Mahsa Amini” and the increased presence of the morality police, there was an outbreak of civil unrest across the country, which in many cities ended in urban riots and clashes. Understanding the root causes of these protests, why they spread so rapidly, and what are the best ways to confront them are important and complex issues which require the input of the elite.
Mehdi Rafiyee Behabadi, the head of the Iranian Students Polling Agency (ISPA) expressed his views on this matter in an interview with IRNA:
There’s more to the 2022 protests than [a quest for] socio-cultural freedom
In the opinion of Mr. Behabadi, the 2022 protests were not only about headscarf and the patrols of the morality police. He believes that for every protest there is a catalyst. For example, the catalyst for the November 2019 protests was the price of gasoline. In 2022, the death of Mahsa Amini and the morality police acted as the catalyst, but these are approximate causes; one should look for the main causes. In the past few decades, we have seen relatively widespread waves of protests in Iran: some researchers have interpreted them as the protests of the middle-class or the low-income class. For instance, they view the 1999 and 2009 protests in the context of the political demands of the middle-class, and the 2017 and 2019 protests as an expression of popular anger over the deplorable economic condition of the low-income class. In all probability, those who insist on such categorizations attribute these protests to the middle-class, but evidence refutes their arguments. It may be that the 1999 and 2009 protests were political in nature, but the 2017 and 2019 protests were not driven by the economic conditions only and were not limited to the low-income class.
A review of the towns and cities where there was an outbreak of protest rallies in 2017 and particularly in 2019 lead us to conclude that many provinces and cities that ranked low in economic and welfare status were not present in the protests; in many cases what happened proved to be quite the contrary.
The timing of the protests is also noteworthy: we have experienced bouts of very high inflation in different times without an outbreak of protests. It doesn't mean that the economic parameter is not important, rather it indicates that people's welfare and income levels may be a necessary parameter but not sufficient in the occurrence of protests. Today, there is a quest for social and cultural freedom, but that is not all.
The public outrage and anger does not come overnight
The Head of the Iranian Students Polling Agency (ISPA) presented his own scientific report on the subject and said: In the summer of 2022, we conducted a survey in six towns in the south of the province of Tehran and studied the impact of 24 parameters on the potential occurrence of protests.
Of the six towns we studied in this survey, four had experienced heavy protests in 2019; these were Qods, Shahriar, Baharestan and Eslamshahr. The other two, Rey and Pakdasht, had stood clear of the protest rallies.
Of the 24 parameters applied in this research, one parameter, “anger against the establishment,” determined the potential for a protest outbreak. In other words, this parameter has more impact on the potential of the occurrence of a protest than other factors. At present, this parameter stands at a high number and represents a serious threat. In my opinion, anger and outrage are bred over a long period of time. In nearly 50 years, apart from the numerous protests by members of different guilds, we have had three widespread protests across the country. Each time a widespread protest occurs, it subsides after a few days or at most a few weeks; but that subsiding is just the appearance. Because the authorities take no heed of [people's] demands, the anger is accumulated, and that is why each time the violence comes back with more intensity.
When anger is not healed, it turns into suppressed anger and comes back stronger.
Behbadi says: according to the survey, although the majority of the people are angry now, half of the population believe that there is no benefit in protesting. Different reasons have been put forward. One is that the authorities take no heed of the protests. In my opinion, this point alone is a clear reason as to why the protests become more unyielding each time. In other words, anger that has not been dealt with becomes suppressed. I disagree with those who believe that if there is room for safe protests, protests will not degenerate into riots. Although there is no harm in doing so, in my opinion this is not a fundamental remedy to the problem at hand.
The scope of resentment is not limited to those who participate in the protest rallies.
The Head of the Iranian Students Polling Agency (ISPA) emphasized that if anger is to be healed, its causes should be identified and cured. He added: even if we create a safe space for protests, where people congregate every now and then to express their protests safely, when they see that their protests lead nowhere, the result would remain the same. If there is a lawful way for people to exercise an influence on the behaviour of those in power (not just a showcase of a protest) then people will not resort to street riots. The existence of street riots today is caused by the absence of those channels, or people's perception that such channels are blocked.
It is most important to note that the scope of resentment and anger is not limited to the protesters who participate in the rallies. They represent a small percentage of the angry people. Many do not believe that protests have any impact and therefore they do not participate in the rallies. Another important parameter which bears a heavy burden on the potential of a protest taking shape is “the fear of the consequences of attending a protest.” Those two parameters are currently effective, but the future is not foreseeable. There may come a day when they are no more effective. Such a scenario would spread the scope of the protests wider.
Increased presence of women protesters in recent years
Behabadi added that the participants in protest rallies, like in all other rallies, are mainly young people. The available data is not reliable, however observation shows that the average age of participants – especially in these protest rallies – has decreased in recent years, and the participants are under 20 years of age and are even teenagers.
Most of the surveys show that those who were born in the 1990s and early 2000s think very differently from other generations and obviously the authorities can not confront and treat them in the same way as it did in relation to those who were born in the 1970s or 1980s.
The Head of the Iranian Students Polling Agency (ISPA) described the increased presence of women in the rallies held in recent years and said women were also present in the rallies in 2019, but in recent protests their presence has been much more spectacular. Research done in recent years also shows that women's potential for protest has reached that of men.
Class-wise, I don't think these protests are limited to the middle-class only. Just like the November 2019 protests where the low-income and the middle-class people were present shoulder to shoulder, these protests are the same: the November 2019 protest rallies were not about the dire economic conditions only, likewise, the present protests are not about socio-cultural and political issues alone.
On the other hand, the low-income class does not only have economic demands as was the case in the past: as a result of widespread education and socio-political awareness they now have demands similar in nature to those of the middle-class. The middle-class does not only have socio-political demands: as a result of the pressures on their livelihood in the past two decades, the middle class has become poorer and has economic demands. In other words, the low-income class and the middle-class have come closer.
The authorities must examine the effectiveness of the legislation
Behabadi continued with some recommendations for the decision-makers and said: It is for the authorities to examine the effectiveness of the existing laws. A statute that has failed to achieve its objectives can be changed, it is not set in stone. If the objective of the establishment is to breed religious people – irrespective of such a policy being objectively right or wrong – it is for the government to determine whether the current policies have made people more religious or not.
He reminded that the surveys show that in relation to some parameters of religiosity, the people of Iran have a good standing, as they did before the revolution; in some other parameters particularly in relation to the observance of the canon law, the ethics, and renouncing what is prohibited, the situation on the ground is very different from the official narrative.
In relation to the latter, it should be examined whether the policies implemented regarding hijab over the past two decades have succeeded in establishing the desired model set by the government. If those policies have failed, then it is clearly important to revise the method of implementation. Revising failed policies, in any sphere, is not a retraction; on the contrary, it will certainly lead to the development of the country.